The Metropolitan Pima Alliance, a group of commercial real-estate developers, engineers and architects, has voted to oppose Prop 200, the Public Safety First initiative that city voters will decide on Nov. 3.

Michael Guymon, executive director of MPA, says the initiative strips the Tucson City Council of too much authority to make decisions for the city.

"We think that the tenets of the proposition are commendable, but we cannot support tying the hands of our elected officials, who we elect to make budgetary decisions on our behalf," Guymon says. "With a charter change, if anything were to change in the future—if standards change or what have you—it would have to go back to the voters. To us, that's not responsible public policy."

The Metropolitan Pima Alliance joins several other business organizations, including the Tucson Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, the Arizona Multihousing Association and Cox Cable, in opposing the initiative, which has been largely funded by the Tucson Association of Realtors.

Reasons to think twice about supporting the initiative can be found here.

Despite the opposition from the business community, the Republican candidates for City Council are supporting the initiative.

Opponents of Prop 200 have scheduled a press conference to announce additional groups opposing the initiative Thursday afternoon.

Here's the latest update on the Arizona Legislature from Rep. Steve Farley. He also slips in a note about voting against the Public Safety First initiative, aka Prop 200 on your November ballot.

Howdy, Friends O'Farley…

Here we are in October, and our deficit is now $1.5 billion and growing.

Constitutionally, the Legislature is supposed to have delivered a balanced budget on June 30, but no one seems to want to enforce that clause. Perhaps this could finally be a good use for Sheriff Joe?

Dressing the Governor and the Legislative majority in pink stripes and locking them into Tent City could finally force an agreement of some kind. Not that I want to spend too much time thinking of the images that go with that scenario.

There is some talk of the Governor calling us into special session again next

Former Texas Congressman Tom DeLay was forced to step down from office in 2005 when faced with dozens of criminal charges. The man was called The Exterminator and The Hammer while in office, and was not known for bipartisan love.

But there he was on Dancing with the Stars last night, trying to make us forget about Jack Abramoff, and the Republican Revolution. The irony of this week's dance is that DeLay is a birther and, while not working on his legal problems, regularly stirs the pot on Obamacare and such.

Fear not. According to E! Online, DeLay McBirther is possibly stepping down from the dance show because of stress fractures. I'd like to see a copy of the note from his doctor.

Perhaps an attempt to buy the judges just didn't work out?

Here's a release we received announcing a new KJLL program for authors.

A new weekly program, produced by Literary Partners Group (LPG) is hosting On the Book Shelf. This hour-long, live listener call-in program airs Saturday mornings from 11 a.m. to noon on radio station KJLL 1330 AM.

On the Book Shelf appears to be the first local radio program for local authors, and is produced and directed by the LPG staff to exclusively promote the writing craft, enabling local authors to publicize their current works. The program will also enable LPG consultants to give writing tips in helping authors publish their manuscripts. Other topics will include editing/proofing, script doctoring, query letter and book proposals.

Future programs will include suggestions from the listeners, along with a wide range of marketing services including media relations, literary reviews and publishing options. This program is open to all authors, not exclusively LPG clients. We look forward to featuring local book stores and other local writing groups as principal program guests.

For more info, contact Andrew T. Greeley at 880-1872.

According to The Huffington Post and The Arizona Republic, Maricopa County's Sheriff Joe Arpaio may have been stripped of his ability to do immigration sweeps by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement).

In response, Arpaio reportedly said this over the weekend on radio station KTAR:

"I'm going to tell you something, Jay," he said to (host Jay) Lawrence. "I don't need the feds to do my crime suppression to opt to arrest illegals. I can do it without the federal authority, and I'm going to continue to do it. It makes no difference. It helps us. Because I don't have to do all the paperwork for the feds, number one. And number two, I won't be under their umbrella, their guidance. So I will operate the same way, nothing is going to change." He added later in the show, "They just don't want me, I'm the poster boy."

Arpaio continued, telling the radio host, "Nothing changes because pursuant to our duties in these crime suppression [sweeps] we arrest anybody that violates the law. If we find during the arrests that that there are illegals, we arrest them. Now the only difference [is] we're going to take 'em down to ICE. I hope they accept them, if they don't, I'll bring 'em myself to the border. So nothing really has changed. This is all politics. They want to use me to get rid of this 287 agreement across the country."

Be sure to read the Phoenix New Times' Stephen Lemons here. Lemons wrote this morning that by going on the radio and making other ICE rants, Arpaio may be in violation of his last ICE jails agreement—one that remains unsigned by the federal powers-that-be.

On Arizona Illustrated tonight, Democrat Richard Fimbres and Republican Shaun McClusky take opposite sides on the Public Safety First initiative, whether the city should slow construction of mini-dorms in university neighborhoods and whether a hotel should be built downtown. Watch it all after the jump.

Well, that was quick.

Republican Steve Kozachik, who is seeking to unseat Democrat Nina Trasoff in Ward 6, has informed us via e-mail that he plans to continue to support the Public Safety First initiative on the Nov. 3 ballot. Kozachik had said he was reconsidering his support, given that the city could be facing a $46 million shortfall next year.

Kozachik says he doesn't trust the budget numbers released by City Manager Mike Letcher.

Here's his complete statement:

It was recently reported that I am reconsidering my support of the Safety First Initiative. Given the importance of that Proposition to our community, I owe it to the voters to make my position clear and unambiguous so that they may make an informed decision in the upcoming election. Early balloting begins this week. Thus, the burden shifts to me to clarify my stance on Proposition 200.

Before the first Proposition 200 petition was circulated early this year, I had committed

Republican Steve Kozachik, who wants to unseat Democratic City Councilwoman Nina Trasoff in the Nov. 3 election, may be having some second thoughts about supporting Prop 200, the Public Safety First Initiative that Tucson voters will decide alongside the council races.

Kozachik, who is on record as supporting the initiative, now says that he’s concerned the city may not be able to afford the price tag.

City officials have said the initiative, which would force the city to hire an estimated 333 police officers and 70 firefighters over the next five years (along with support staff in both departments and the associated costs of equipping the new cops and firefighters), could cost as much as $51 million a year once it’s fully implemented five years from now. City Manager Mike Letcher has called the impact “catastrophic,” while critics of the initiative—including the Tucson Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and the Arizona Multihousing Association—warn that the additional spending on police and fire would result in tax hikes or cuts to street repair, park maintenance and other city services.

The initiative is being pushed by the Tucson Association of Realtors, with some financial support from the Southern Arizona Home Builders Association and the police and fire unions.

A new report from the city’s Independent Audit and Performance Commission estimates that the recurring operating costs of the initiative will actually be $64 million a year once it is fully implemented. (It will cost another $3.1 million annually in capital costs.) That will be offset by an estimated $3.3 million new fees and fines on criminals who are caught by the new police officers. (We’ll have more details on the report in this week’s Skinny.)

Kozachik says he’s looking over the city budget to determine whether Letcher’s forecast of a $45.9 million deficit (at minimum) in next year’s budget is accurate.

“I want to either be able to verify or refute the numbers that Letcher has come out with,” Kozachik says. “If they are verifiable, I’m concerned about locking the city in, by charter, to another $8 1/2 million a year.”

Kozachik says studying the budget—which he calls a “damn shell game,” echoing complaints that Trasoff had with the city when she ran four years ago against Republican Fred Ronstadt—has been frustrating.

“I’m really tired of both sides coming out with either inflated or deflated numbers,” Kozachik says.

Here's a new twist in this year's city election: Pima County will be managing it instead of the City Clerk's Office. And that could significantly boost turnout.

With early voting starting on Thursday, Oct. 8, roughly 61,400 city voters on the new county permanent early-voter list will all be getting ballots in the mail starting this week. In the past, city voters have had to request an early ballot before one was sent to them.

That means more than one in four of the roughly 224,000 city voters—or more than 27 percent—will have a ballot in their hands very soon. We expect that many of them will hang onto them for a few weeks, and some may never get around to sending them back.

Still, when you consider that city elections often only see a 25 percent turnout (four years ago, in the hotly contested 2005 contest, four out of 10 voters cast a ballot), we could see a surprisingly high number of citizens casting votes.

Republicans Ben Buehler-Garcia and Shaun McClusky have new TV ads for their campaigns for Tucson City Council.

Buehler-Garcia's last ad was introductory piece that was widely panned by both Democrats and Republicans. The new one takes some shots at his opponent, Democratic incumbent Karin Uhlich:

McClusky's ad follows a similar theme. McClusky, by the way, will be debating his Democratic opponent, Richard Fimbres, on KUAT-TV's Arizona Illustrated this evening. The program airs at 6:30 p.m. on Channel 6.