The worst-case scenario for Republicans is if Trump decides to run a third-party campaign. Even managing to get his name on the ballot in a handful of states would bring victory out of reach for the GOP’s eventual nominee. The best-case scenario is that Trump straggles through the race, eventually supporting the nominee. But this scenario is also far from ideal. It means that Trump has shaped the tenor of the race in almost precisely the opposite way the party establishment had hoped.Slate's Jamelle Bouie makes a similar point:
Immigration did not represent the totality of the party elite’s strategic response to the 2012 election, but it did constitute its main tenet. The Republican brain trust hoped to resolve its image problem with Latino and Asian-American voters by passing immigration reform as quickly as possible. The purest version of this strategy, articulated by Charles Krauthammer, called for Republicans to fold completely on immigration, and change nothing else about their program. The idea was to take the short-term hit as quickly as possible after the midterms, allowing the base to vent its spleen and make up in time for the presidential campaign. Republicans in the Senate were able to make this happen, but the House proved typically impotent in the face of opposition.
In the wake of this failure, Republicans have vaguely hoped to finesse the issue. Trump is making that difficult. His arch-restrictionist plan — involving mass deportations and a gigantic wall on the Mexican border that Trump, through the use of his uniquely Trumpian negotiating power, would make Mexico finance — has set a standard against which others will be judged. Scott Walker is already bellying up to the bar, comparing himself to the polling leader (“I haven’t looked at all the details of his, but the things I’ve heard are very similar to the things I mentioned"). Given that Trump has made himself the symbol of racism against Mexicans, it is difficult to imagine a simple escape from the party’s branding disasters of the Obama era. But that is what they have, and what they may well continue to have, well into 2016.
Tags: Trump , immigration , Republican primary , Arizona news , Tucson news , GOP latino outreach , AZ politics
I just heard that Stefan George passed away. I'll never forget our conversation over whiskey about music, women, and life. You were always a stand out gentleman. You will be heavily missed.George's reach, in terms of genre, generation and more, already has people talking about how best to honor him. Lipson says he wouldn't be surprised if HoCo Fest, TKMA and the Tucson Blues Hall of Fame (of which George was a member) all opted to honor him in different ways.
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As last week’s Gallup poll reaffirmed, a small minority of Americans—only 19 percent—believe that unauthorized immigrants should be deported from the United States. In contrast, the vast majority of Americans want sensible solutions to immigration policy, with 65 percent believing that unauthorized immigrants should be allowed to get legal status and a pathway to citizenship.
In analysis released today by the Center for American Progress, Associate Director for Immigration Policy Philip Wolgin discusses the cost of a mass deportation strategy, with research showing that the average cost per person would be $10,070, for a total of $114 billion to remove 11.3 million people.
The figure includes the high costs required to find each and every unauthorized individual, something that would be—aside from the high costs—a logistical nightmare. CAP’s $114 billion estimate also includes the cost to detain these individuals while they wait for removal, to process them through the already overburdened immigration courts, and to transport them abroad.
Tags: donald trump , washington post , center for american progress , immigration
The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.Pour yourself a gin and tonic, tonight we're toasting progress.
Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
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Two years after the failure of Senate legislation to expand background checks on gun purchases, the public continues to overwhelmingly support making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks. Currently, 85% of Americans – including large majorities of Democrats (88%) and Republicans (79%) – favor expanded background checks, little changed from May 2013 (81%).Partisan Views of Gun ProposalsBut in the abstract, there's still a significant split in whether gun rights should be curtailed:
The latest Pew Research Center poll of 2,002 adults, conducted July 14-20, finds that opinions about other gun policy proposals also are largely unchanged from two years ago, shortly after the December 2012 school shootings in Newtown, Conn.
Nearly eight-in-ten (79%) favor laws to prevent people with mental illness from purchasing guns, 70% back the creation of a federal database to track all gun sales, while a smaller majority (57%) supports a ban on assault-style weapons.
Almost identical shares of Republicans (81%) and Democrats (79%) support laws to prevent the mentally ill from buying guns. But other proposals are more divisive: 85% of Democrats favor creation of a database for the federal government to track gun sales, compared with 55% of Republicans. And while 70% of Democrats back an assault-weapons ban, only about half of Republicans (48%) favor this proposal.
One of our most important assets is a trio of cameras called the OSIRIS-REx Camera Suite, or OCAMS, under construction at the University of Arizona. The design of OCAMS allows us to image Bennu over 9 orders-of-magnitude in distance, from an initial distance of 1-million kilometers (over 620,000 miles) down to 2 meters (6.5 feet). The camera suite is similar to a lookout nestled in the crow’s-nest of a tall ship. This scout must observe Bennu as we approach, survey, and recon the asteroid, and tell the ship’s navigator where to go.To let Tucsonans know more about this way-cool space mission, the OSIRIS-REx team is putting on a party on Saturday, Sept. 12, at downtown's Fox Theatre. Bennuval will feature OSIRIS-REx principal investigator Dante Lauretta of the UA's Lunar and Planetary Lab, as well as Geoff Notkin, star of Science Channel’s Meteorite Men; the comedic Tucson Improv Movement; fiery stunt team Flam Chen, and the ChamberLab music project. Tickets are just
Outer space takes the stage when Dante Lauretta, University of Arizona Professor of Planetary Science and Cosmochemistry and Principal Investigator on NASA’s OSIRIS REx Mission, is joined by Geoff Notkin, star of Science Channel’s Meteorite Men, to present Bennuval! An Evening of Space, Art and Music. This live variety show features performances by some of Tucson’s most innovative entertainers, including comedic troupe Tucson Improv Movement, daredevil acrobats Flam Chen, and avant-garde music project, ChamberLab. The Art of Planetary Science will exhibit works created from and inspired by the solar system and the scientific data with which we explore it. Meteorites will also be on display, completing the otherworldly atmosphere of this unique event.
Bennuval! takes its name from the asteroid Bennu, destination of OSIRIS-REx. Bennuval! celebrates the University of Arizona’s accomplishments in space as part of the vibrant creative culture that thrives in Tucson by bringing together art and outer space in an entertaining setting. Both imaginative and informative, Bennuval! establishes Tucson’s reputation as a space age city.
The presenting sponsor of Bennuval! is the University of Arizona College of Science & Galileo Circle. Other sponsors include Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, TEP, Godat Design, BRINKmedia, Bill Westcott, Paragon Space Development, Strategic Space Development, Kinetx Aerospace, Indigo Information Services and Volvo of Tucson.
Doors open at 6:00 p.m. and the show begins at 7:00 p.m.
Tags: OSIRIS-REx , NASA , University of Arizona , Arizona news , Tucson news , space mission , asteroids , Dante Lauretta , Bennuval , fox theater