WASHINGTON – After years of steady declines, enrollment in Affordable Care Act coverage ticked up in Arizona and held steady in the U.S. this year in what one advocate called a “pleasant surprise” after a challenging year.

The six-week open enrollment period that ended last Tuesday showed enrollment going from 153,020 in Arizona for coverage plans for this year to 154,265 people who signed up for coverage in 2021, according to preliminary numbers released Friday by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Nationally, the number of people signing up for coverage in the federal exchange dipped from 8.3 million last year to 8.2 million this year – but federal officials note that New Jersey and Pennsylvania shifted from the federal marketplace to state-based marketplaces this year. That removed 578,251 people from those states who would otherwise have been counted on the federal rolls.

CMS Administrator Seema Verma said in a statement Friday that the Trump administration’s “focus on delivering more choices along with a smooth and streamlined consumer experience continues to drive strong enrollment.”

“We’ve opened more pathways to enroll by taking advantage of the private sector and people are clearly finding the coverage they need at this critical time,” she said.

Morgan Tucker, state director for Protect Our Care Arizona, agreed that more people took advantage of coverage this year – but she said it was no thanks to the Trump administration, which she accused of trying to “sabotage” the Obama-era health insurance program.

“Despite anything they may have heard over the last four years, it is safe, reliable health insurance that they can trust,” Tucker said of coverage available under the “Obamacare” program.

The ACA has also been under assault by a coalition of states, including Arizona, that argued before the Supreme Court this fall that the plan is unconstitutional. A ruling in that case is not expected for months, but Tucker said it cast a shadow over this year’s open enrollment.

With more than 5,800 new cases reported today, the number of Arizona’s confirmed novel coronavirus cases now stands higher than 467,000 as of Tuesday, Dec. 22, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services.

Pima County, which reported 984 new cases today, has seen 61,344 of the state’s 467,215 confirmed cases.

A total of 8,125 Arizonans have died after contracting COVID-19, including 938 deaths in Pima County, according to the Dec. 22 report.

The number of hospitalized COVID cases statewide continues to soar as the virus has begun to spread more rapidly, putting stress on Arizona’s hospitals and surpassing July peaks. ADHS reported that as of Dec. 21, a record number of 4,019 COVID patients were hospitalized in the state. The summer peak of 3,517 hospitalized COVID patients was set on July 13; that number hit a subsequent low of 468 on Sept. 27.

A total of 1,817 people visited emergency rooms on Dec. 21 with COVID symptoms. That number, which hit a new record of 2,166 earlier this month, had previously peaked at 2,008 on July 7; it hit a subsequent low of 653 on Sept. 28.

A total of 943 COVID-19 patients were in intensive care unit beds on Dec. 21. The number of COVID patients in ICUs peaked at 970 on July 13 and hit a subsequent low of 114 on Sept. 22.

Healthcare system on the edge of being “overwhelmed”

In a new public health advisory, the Pima County Health Department warned yesterday that the healthcare system is in danger of becoming overwhelmed within the next two to three weeks if the spread of COVID-19 continues at its current pace.

According to County Health Director Dr. Theresa Cullen, the county is on track to see more coronavirus infections in December than all previous months of the pandemic combined.

The advisory asks for continued adherence to the county’s mandatory mask mandate and 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew.

It also asks to limit all gatherings to less than 10 people and that all businesses reduce their occupancy to 25%.

According to the new advisory, the last week has seen multiple instances of zero ICU bed availability and several days where hospital medical-surgical beds have reached capacity.

Emergency departments and hospitals face staff and critical supply shortages.

The health department is asking residents to stay home and minimize activities that involve contact with people outside of their households, stay physically distanced and practice mask-wearing and frequent sanitization.

“This isn’t just about COVID anymore and whether you think it’s a real problem or not. The patients filling these hospitals are absolutely real and if you have a heart attack, or if you get into a car accident, or your appendix bursts, there is a real possibility that you may not get the timely care you need to save your life if we don’t get control of this virus,” Cullen said. “People are dying yet many of those deaths are preventable if the people of this community stay home, wear their masks and avoid people they don’t live with as much as possible.”

TMC cancels elective surgeries

Tucson Medical Center has canceled elective surgeries through Jan. 4.

A letter from TMC COO Mimi Coomler and CMO Dr. Amy Beiter states that TMC is too crowded with COVID patients to move forward with elective surgeries.

“We have reached the point in the pandemic where the number of COVID patients needing care is exceeding available resources on a daily basis,” they wrote.

The letter also notes that TMC turned away 80 direct admissions in the past week.

For weeks, hospital officials and healthcare experts have been urging the community to stop socializing outside of your immediate household, stay home as much as possible, wear masks and frequently wash hands. They have pleaded with people to cancel holiday celebrations with extended family and friends as the virus has returned to widespread transmission.

Dr. Joe Gerald’s weekly update on COVID’s spread shows that as of Dec. 18, 47% of Arizona’s general ward hospital beds were occupied by COVID patients, a jump of 14% from last week.

“We are now undergoing the great ‘displacement’ such that hospital services are now being rationed so that patients with severe COVID-19 illness are displacing others who have slightly less severe non-COVID medical conditions,” Gerald wrote. “As Covid-19 illness continues to increase, delaying others’ care will become ever more difficult. At some point, hospitals will have to expand their physical capacity. Make no mistake, the COVID-19 crisis is now placing a greater share of Arizonans’ at-risk, not just those unfortunate enough to contract COVID-19.”

“Because cases have been increasing, deaths are also increasing,” he wrote. “Sharper rises are expected over the coming weeks as deaths lag new cases by 14- days and are often only made known weeks later. By Christmas, Arizona will be experiencing >500 deaths per week. However, this toll will not be apparent until mid-January once all deaths are accounted for.”

Gerald said Arizona’s spread was among the worst in the nation.

“For those keeping score, Arizona has the 7 th fastest increasing COVID-19 outbreak as measured by Rt.live,” Gerald wrote. “Arizona’s effective viral reproduction number (Rt) is now 1.11. Arizona ranks 4th in the number of daily reported cases at 92.9 per 100,000 residents. We should move ahead of Rhode Island, 93.7 per 100,000 residents, this week.”

Pima County under curfew

Pima County's voluntary curfew has now become mandatory.

The Pima County Board of Supervisors voted 3-2 last week to instate a mandatory 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew throughout the county in an attempt to combat Southern Arizona's rising number of coronavirus cases.

Supervisor Steve Christy and outgoing Supervisor Ally Miller, who attended her last board meeting this week, voted against the proposal.

Penalties for a nonessential business found violating curfew range from having their business permit suspended or revoked.

The mandatory curfew will stay in place until coronavirus infection rates drop below 100 per 100,000 people, according to county officials.

The transmission rate in Pima County was 357 people per 100,000 people in the two-week period ending Nov. 29, but Pima County Health Department Director Dr. Theresa Cullen expects that number to be significantly higher for the period ending Dec. 13.

The mandatory curfew comes as through the first two weeks of December, COVID-19 cases in the county reached 13,589—2,554 more cases than reported in all of November. Last week saw 70 coronavirus deaths, according to a memorandum from County Administrator Chuck Huckelberry.

While businesses will now face losing their operating permits if they don't comply with the curfew, it "carries no penalty associated with the individual, as it would be difficult to enforce a curfew against individuals without the cooperation of law enforcement," Huckelberry writes in the memo.

More details here. 

First healthcare workers vaccinated

Banner University Medical Center and Tucson Medical Center began the first round of COVID-19 vaccinations in Pima County last week. While a small number of test vaccinations were injected earlier this week, last Thursday, Dec. 17, marks the official beginning of the Pima County Health Department’s three-phase plan, beginning with frontline workers.

At Banner University’s northside campus, Iris Delfakis, a nurse at the University of Arizona’s Cancer Center, volunteered to receive the first injection.

“I’m all for it,” Delfakis said. “I know there are some against the vaccine, but I think everyone should get it. We’ve never seen something like COVID in our lifetimes.”

According to Rebecca Ruiz-McGill, information specialist for Banner UMC, the medical center needs to “walk before we run,” with vaccine administrations. Because COVID-19 testing involves similar logistics, Banner expects its vaccine process to be in full order within a week or two. By the end of the month, they expect to be administering more than 100 vaccines per day.

Banner’s vaccine station was in its parking garage and saw several hospital staff in its first hour. Among the staff was Dr. Melissa Zukowski, who works in Banner's Department of Emergency Medicine and was prioritized for vaccination because she works in a COVID unit. Those who receive their vaccine will need to receive a second booster injection three weeks after their first.

“I’m emotional with joy. It’s been such a long time we’ve waited for this vaccine,” said Zukowski, who received the injection while holding her daughter’s hand. “To the skeptics who still don’t think this is real – it’s very real. We’ve been going non-stop. People are sick, and people are dying . . . There’s a long road ahead, but this is a glimmer of light.”

However, the pace of vaccinations may slow this week due to a reduction in state Pfizer vaccine allocations, according to Pima County Health Department Logistics Manager Spencer Graves.

The state last week informed Pima County it would receive fewer than 2,000 Pfizer vaccines, a significant decrease from the 10,000 expected, according to a health department press release.

Although 17,000 Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are expected to arrive this week, with 6,000 going to the Banner and TMC distribution centers, those who received the Pfizer vaccine must receive a second dose of it 21 days from the first one in order to be considered completely immunized. The two doses must be administered by the same vaccine brand.

“The Pfizer reduction may slow the pace of vaccinations,” the press release said. “The County and the regional medical community hope to have every medical professional who works with COVID patients vaccinated by the end of December.”

The vaccine prioritization plan includes three phases with the most high-risk individuals receiving the vaccine first, according to county officials.

Phase one of vaccine implementation is divided into three groups: 1A, 1B and 1C. Group 1A will begin receiving vaccines this week.

Group 1B, which includes teachers, law enforcement and other essential service workers, are expected to receive vaccines by March, Cullen said.

Group 1C includes adults older than 65 and those with high-risk medical conditions, which contains nearly 70% of the population and is expected to receive vaccinations by “late spring, early summer,” according to Cullen.

The Pfizer vaccine is given in two doses 21 days apart. The health department said if the second dose is not received on its scheduled time, the first dose will still be valid and the recipient is still fully protected.

More details here. 

Get tested: Pima County has free COVID testing

Pima County offers a number of testing centers around town.

You’ll have a nasal swab test at the Kino Event Center (2805 E. Ajo Way) the Udall Center (7200 E. Tanque Verde Road) and downtown (88 E. Broadway).

The center at the northside Ellie Towne Flowing Wells Community Center, 1660 W. Ruthrauff Road, involves a saliva test designed by ASU.

In addition, the Pima County Health Department, Pima Community College and Arizona State University have partnered to create new drive-thru COVID-19 testing sites at three Pima Community College locations. At the drive-thru sites, COVID-19 testing will be offered through spit samples instead of nasal canal swabs. Each site will conduct testing from 9 a.m. to noon, and registration is required in advance. Only patients 5 years or older can be tested.

Schedule an appointment at these or other pop-up sites at pima.gov/covid19testing.

The University of Arizona’s antibody testing has been opened to all Arizonans as the state attempts to get a handle on how many people have been exposed to COVID-19 but were asymptomatic or otherwise did not get a test while they were ill. To sign up for testing, visit https://covid19antibodytesting.arizona.edu/home.

—with additional reporting from Austin Counts, Jeff Gardner, Nicole Ludden and Mike Truelsen

WASHINGTON – President-elect Joe Biden has promised to roll back many of the Trump administration’s restrictive immigration policies when he takes office next month.

He’s got his work cut out for him.

While President Donald Trump’s signature – and likely most enduring – immigration policy is the still-in-progress southern border wall, he has touched virtually every part of the immigration issue, beginning with day one of his presidency four years ago.

“What haven’t they done?” asked Sarah Pierce, a policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.

“They have entirely shut down the southern border, they have revitalized interior enforcement, they have sped up the immigration courts and increased the number of deportation orders they issue,” Pierce said.

“They’ve tightened the legal immigration system and generally made life really uncomfortable for both legal and illegal immigrants in the United States,” she said.

But many of Trump’s plans have been blocked by courts, and others are vulnerable to being reversed by executive order or shifts in agency policy – because that’s how many of them were enacted by the current administration.

Biden said during his campaign that he would target many of those policies with his own executive orders, raising the cap on the number of refugees the U.S. will accept in a year, reversing the “Muslim ban” that severely limited immigrants from largely Islamic countries and ending the national emergency declaration that allowed construction of the border wall.

All signs are pointing to a dry start to 2021 across much of the Colorado River watershed, which provides water to about 40 million people in the Western U.S.

A lack of precipitation from April to October made this spring, summer and fall one of the region’s driest six-month periods on record. And with a dry start to winter, river forecasters feel more pessimistic about the chances for a drought recovery in the early part of 2021.

“We’re starting off water year 2021 with widespread much below-average soil moisture conditions and snow water equivalent conditions,” said Cody Moser, a hydrologist with the Utah-based Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Some weather stations in Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Nevada have recorded their driest years on record, Moser said. There doesn’t seem to be much relief in sight. Short-term and long-term weather forecasts all point to above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for the foreseeable future.

Exceptional drought conditions have expanded across 65% of the Colorado River watershed. Low soil moisture heading into winter will also play a role in how snowpack accumulates this season, and how much water will flow into streams and reservoirs during spring runoff, adding pressure to large-scale water users like municipalities and farmers.

Most major rivers in the basin are projected to flow well below normal levels next year due to extremely low soil moisture conditions, though Moser said there’s significant uncertainty about water supply forecasts so early in the season.

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But given the dry conditions heading into winter, an average snowpack won’t be enough to provide significant relief, Moser said.

“It does seem like we’re going to need a really good snow year in order to make up some ground for the dry conditions entering the season,” Moser said.

Soil moisture is an important indicator because it can influence how much snow melts into streams, rivers and reservoirs.

A recent forecast from the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that operates Western water infrastructure, showed the Colorado River’s largest reservoirs are likely to drop next year if demands stay the same.

Without a high snowpack this winter, the agency forecasts the Colorado River system’s biggest reservoirs will be reduced to a combined 44% of their total capacity by fall 2021.

This story is part of a project covering the Colorado River, produced by KUNC and supported through a Walton Family Foundation grant.

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With more than 7,600 new cases reported today, the number of Arizona’s confirmed novel coronavirus cases jumped by nearly 19,000 over the weekend and now stands higher than 461,000 as of Monday, Dec. 21, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services.

Pima County, which reported 1,244 new cases today, has seen 60,360 of the state’s 461,345 confirmed cases.

A total of 7,972 Arizonans have died after contracting COVID-19, including 905 deaths in Pima County, according to the Dec. 21 report.

The number of hospitalized COVID cases statewide continues to soar as the virus has begun to spread more rapidly, putting stress on Arizona’s hospitals and surpassing July peaks. ADHS reported that as of Dec. 20, 3,925 COVID patients were hospitalized in the state, slightly lower than the new record of 4,014 set on Dec. 18. The previous peak of 3,517 hospitalized COVID patients was set on July 13; that number hit a subsequent low of 468 on Sept. 27.

A total of 1,795 people visited emergency rooms on Dec. 20 with COVID symptoms. That number, which hit a new record of 2,166 earlier this month, had previously peaked at 2,008 on July 7; it hit a subsequent low of 653 on Sept. 28.

A total of 904 COVID-19 patients were in intensive care unit beds on Dec. 20. The number of COVID patients in ICUs peaked at 970 on July 13 and hit a subsequent low of 114 on Sept. 22.

TMC cancels elective surgeries

Tucson Medical Center has canceled elective surgeries through Jan. 4.

A letter from TMC COO Mimi Coomler and CMO Dr. Amy Beiter states that TMC is too crowded with COVID patients to move forward with elective surgeries.

“We have reached the point in the pandemic where the number of COVID patients needing care is exceeding available resources on a daily basis,” they wrote.

WASHINGTON – Background checks for gun purchases in Arizona hit their highest level ever in 2020, driven by an unprecedented convergence of a pandemic, a summer of national unrest and a presidential election, experts said.

With a month left to go in the year, 610,911 background checks had been performed in the state through November, well over the 372,912 done in all of 2019, according to FBI data.

The Arizona spike is part of a nationwide increase, said Kelly Drane, research director at Giffords Law Center, a gun-control advocacy group. She estimated that there was a nearly 90% increase in gun sales nationally from March to October this year compared to last year, with early data indicating “a substantial number of these purchases were made by new gun owners.”

Veerachart Murphy said that is what he has seen at Ammo AZ, the Phoenix gun store he owns, where there has been a “huge uptick in first-time buyers.”

“Between the election and COVID and shutdowns and riots – it was enough to get them off the couch and come in and actually make their first purchase,” Murphy said of “people that were kind of maybe on the fence” about buying a gun.

He said his biggest spike in sales came early this year as COVID-19 began dominating the news, with a 400% increase in sales from January to February. He attributes it to anxiety about a possible pandemic-related lockdown.

Sales remained relatively high, he said, until another spike in the summer, when clashes between police and protesters were in the headlines.

That experience tracks the FBI’s data, which shows that Arizona had the highest number of background checks in March, with nearly 83,000, followed by June and July, which had 74,000 and 60,000 background checks, respectively.

Murphy said he has seen similar spikes since he got into the gun business in 2013, usually after active-shooter incidents or mass shootings – and before the 2016 presidential election when sales jumped in anticipation of a win by Democrat Hillary Clinton. Sales tailed off then after gun-friendly President Donald Trump took office.

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The FBI’s Phoenix field office is warning buyers of common scams during the holiday shopping season.

In 2019, 7,795 Arizona consumers claimed a total loss of more than $47 million, according to a press release from the FBI.

The three main scams the FBI warns shoppers of include online shopping, gift card and charity scams.

Some online stores offer reduced brand-name merchandise that is compromised or doesn’t exist. Scammers often use phishing tactics in emails and advertisements, which involve fraudulent links or attachments that if clicked on, can reveal personal information.

The same thing can happen when clicking on fake social media posts that appear to be vouchers or gift cards but rather reveal personal information, according to the release.

Shoppers should also be wary of buying gift cards from outside sources requesting their purchase.

“In these scams, the victims receive either a spoofed email, a spoofed phone call, or a spoofed text from a person in authority requesting the victim purchase multiple gift cards for either personal or business reasons,” the FBI release said. “The gift cards are then used to facilitate the purchase of goods and services which may or may not be legitimate.”

They also caution against websites that only take payment through gift cards or wire transfers, which can give scammers access to “receive illicit funds.”

WASHINGTON – A deadly epidemic has been on the rise this year in Arizona – but this one has drawn scant media attention.

With the world focused on COVID-19, local and national experts say a growing number of opioid overdoses and deaths is being overlooked.

“COVID-19 has taken up a lot of our space, but oftentimes it’s the way of the world,” said Maya Tatum, secretary of the Students for Sensible Drug Policy board of directors. “It takes over people’s minds and people forget.”

And, they fear, that increase may be driven in part by the upheaval the coronavirus has caused to lives and our livelihoods.

According to data collected by the Arizona Department of Health Services, verified opioid overdoses jumped from 375 in February to 479 in March, the height of pandemic-related restrictions on business and travel. At the time, it was the highest monthly number of confirmed overdoses since the state began monthly tracking in June 2017. Confirmed opioid overdoses have since risen to peak at 500 in August, before starting to move back down.

“When you restrict activities, when you isolate people, when people lose their employment, this has major effects on mental health,” said Dr. Elinore McCance-Katz, assistant secretary for mental health and substance use with the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration.

“For people who have substance problems, it can make them worse. For people who don’t have substance problems, it may initiate the use of substances,” she said.

It’s not just an Arizona problem: McCance-Katz and others said the same increase in overdoses has been seen nationally this year. And they may continue to increase as days go by, especially with some people being isolated in their homes, she said.