A new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention examines how effective Arizona’s mitigation measures were on stopping the increase of COVID-19. The report, which tracked case numbers from Jan. 22 to Aug. 7, shows a clear correlation in reduced virus cases after face masks and social distancing were mandated.

In Arizona, the average number of daily virus cases increased approximately 151% after the statewide stay-at-home order was lifted in mid-May, with Gov. Doug Ducey declaring “we are clearly on the other side of this pandemic.”

According to CDC data, two weeks after Arizona's stay-at-home orders were first lifted on May 15, daily new COVID cases increased from 808 on June 1 to 2,026 on June 15. This led to a peak in cases from June 29 to July 2. Cases then began to reduce after Ducey allowed local officials to implement their own mandates on June 17. The ensuing local policies were applicable to approximately 85% of the total Arizona population.

COVID-19 cases then declined by approximately 75% following "sustained prevention efforts" across Arizona. These prevention efforts include wearing masks, limiting public events and closing certain businesses such as bars, movie theaters and gyms. Due to the infection cycle of the virus, case increases and reductions are delayed by an average of two weeks after mandates change.

The report states: The number of COVID-19 cases in Arizona stabilized and then decreased after sustained implementation and enforcement of statewide and locally enhanced mitigation measures, beginning approximately two weeks after implementation and enforcement of mask mandates and enhanced sanitation practices began on June 17; further decreases were observed during July 13–August 7, after statewide limitations and closures of certain services and businesses.

The CDC continues by saying that quantitative data on the effectiveness of community mitigation measures at suppressing the virus’ spread is difficult to calculate, and the primary goal of implementing these widespread “enhanced mitigation measures” in Arizona was to protect and save lives and maintain capacity in the health care system. Ultimately, a combination of voluntary and enforceable measures is more effective than any single measure, although public policy can effectively increase social distancing.

These mitigation measures should still be implemented, particularly before a vaccine or other treatments become widely available. State, local and tribal officials are best positioned to continually monitor data and collaborate to determine the level and types of enhanced mitigation required. Mitigation measures, including mask mandates, that are implemented and enforced statewide appear to have been effective in decreasing the spread of COVID-19 in Arizona.

The Tucson Unified School District’s governing board approved a new hybrid learning model for returning to classes but delayed voting on when to implement it.

In a 4-1 vote, the board approved the new model but put off deciding on a return date until the next TUSD board meeting Oct. 27.

Superintendent Dr. Gabriel Trujillo asked board members to consider a new start date for the revised hybrid model on Nov. 12, dependent on Pima County data tracking the spread of coronavirus in the county.

To move to the hybrid model, TUSD must meet criteria from Pima County’s COVID-19 Progress Report, which tracks local disease data, healthcare capacity and public health capacity. As of Oct. 1, eight of the nine health criteria are making “progress” or have been officially “met.”

Pima County has not met the benchmark of a two-week decline in the number of COVID-19 cases, and therefore, the district does not currently meet guidelines set out by the Pima County Health Department to return to in-person classes.

Trujillo says this guideline hasn’t been met because of some TUSD schools’ proximity to the University of Arizona campus.

“TUSD is unique amongst the school districts in that we have six schools that are directly on the U of A campus or adjacent to it, so this is really close to home for us,” Trujillo said. “It’s the fact that the COVID-19 spike at the U of A has most influenced the movement backward of this key metric in the last two weeks that still does have me concerned.”

According to a survey taken by more than 20,000 parents and teachers within TUSD, 56% support remote learning only, while 44% support returning to classes with a hybrid model.

“This hybrid model places education utterly last on the list of priorities,” Cheryl Watters, a teacher and parent in the district said in an email read aloud at the board meeting. “Instead of teaching, I will be disinfecting my classrooms and monitoring my students to be sure they are complying with the safety protocols. I will now be responsible for the physical health of my students. How can I focus on teaching when I carry that weight?”

Vicki Saunders, an office assistant at Rincon High School, wrote, “I’m strongly in favor of moving to a hybrid model on Oct. 19, because our students are asking to return and begging to return... We have so many students struggling academically, mentally and physically.”

Largely split on the decision of returning to schools, the TUSD board voted to delay the vote 3-2 with members Adelita Grijalva and Rachael Sedgwick opposing.

“If this item passes and we table this until [Oct.] 27, I would hope that on that date, we can have a real honest discussion about pushing this off and the majority of the board will make a decision then,” Grijalva said. “While I know that our teachers are in limbo and will feel it, I think that will give us an opportunity to get some breathing room.”

Sedgwick said delaying the vote will put a further burden on teachers who would have to quickly adapt their lesson plans to fit a new hybrid model.

“I think we understand how difficult it is to prepare a classroom for a school year with just two weeks’ notice, and for this board to continue to put this decision off is to make hundreds of thousands of people wait for our decision every two weeks,” Sedgwick said.

Trujillo mentioned many teachers’ concerns about adjusting to a hybrid model, but ultimately recognized that nearly half of survey respondents want in-person learning.